Crypto,  Market Thoughts

The Market will Go Higher than You Think

I’ve seen a lot of talk on the timeline lately theorizing that this cycle might be “shorter” or that it “won’t run as far as previous cycles”.

To me, this sounds like bear market ptsd.

Hell, I’m even seeing accounts openly saying they believe we’ve already seen the top, a double top at that, before the halving has even hit.

Now, is anything possible?

Sure. I’ll never say anything is impossible when it comes to markets.

However, in my eyes, the chances of this happening are as close to zero as you can possibly get.

And I have my money where my mouth is. I’m basically long for 95% of my net worth.

Some might argue that I’m biased as a bull, because I have so much long exposure.

I’d argue that’s a brainlet way of looking at it.

I’m not bullish because I’m long… I’m long because I’m bullish.

I learned the hard lessons last cycle, and intend to make use of those lessons this time around.

The title of this post isn’t “The market will go up” it’s “The Market will go higher than You Expect”.

A lot of people speculate that about $100K will be where Bitcoin tops out this cycle.

This seems far too conservative.

There are a lot of different factors that led me to this point of view. But the one we’ll start with is how everything has become a Ponzi scheme.

To be more exact, it’s finally becoming obvious that everything has been a Ponzi scheme all along.

Our entire economic structure is built upon a Ponzi scheme.

That’s what fractional reserve banking is, by definition.

If you don’t know what fiat currency or fractional reserve banking are, and why they’re bad for the financial health of a society, you should read the book “The Creature from Jekyll Island”.

That book goes much deeper on the topic than I could ever go on this blog.

If you have any sort of interest in financial markets, economics, or just money in general… you’re doing yourself a huge disservice if you don’t pick up a copy.

The reason I bring it up is because this whole “exposing the ponzi” moment started with the Covid money printing. 

This is when the fuse was lit that would burn down to the climactic implosion of the economy.

Since then, we’ve seen rampant inflation in everything from housing to groceries.

Homes that used to cost $300k in my area are now going for well over $500k.

Pre covid, I could buy a week’s worth of groceries for myself for around $75. Today, that number is typically around $125 for roughly the same shopping cart.

If you’ve been out to a restaurant recently, then you’re well aware that prices have went up pretty dramatically over the past couple of years.

Money is just not buying nearly as much as it used to. 

That’s why I say this cycle is going to go higher than most people imagine.

In the last 6 months at work, I’ve noticed my coworkers are all talking about investments of one kind or another.

I’ve never mentioned any of my crypto trading at work, but when Bitcoin was approaching and breaking last cycles all-time high, I heard tons of crypto talk. 

It seemed like I was hearing everyone talking about crypto as I eavesdropped in the break room or out on site.

The crypto talk has pretty much entirely died off since the pullback though, which makes me even more bullish.

Now that the crypto talk has died, all the talk has been about stocks, gold/silver, and side hustles.

If you look at the big picture, it tells a pretty clear story.

People are feeling the crunch of inflation, and this is making them desperate to gamble their way into better financial circumstances.

In the pre covid era, I rarely remember any of my coworkers, family, friends, etc. discussing investments outside of retirement accounts, stocks, and housing.

And when they discussed those things, it was never like today. 

Back when I was flipping penny stock pump and dump newsletter plays, roughly a decade ago, absolutely no one in my life was talking about investing, outside of real estate and their 401k.

People would have looked at me like I was spending my entire paycheck on scratch off tickets if I had told them about my penny stock trading back then.

Fast forward to today, and no one would bat an eye.

Once the effects of the money printers started being felt in the form of inflation, and people’s paychecks weren’t buying as much as they used to, the masses expanded their comfort zone for risk tolerance in pursuit of greater returns. 

As the fiat ponzi system rushes towards the place EVERY fiat system finds itself eventually, people will be forced to become hyper gamblers.

They will go further out on the risk curve just to keep up with the lifestyle their parents and grandparents took for granted. 

With this in mind, I’m convinced that the crypto markets will be the biggest benefactor of this newfound need for the middle class to chase ridiculous gains.

The ease of accessibility, the absurd potential for gains, and the level of control afforded by crypto make me convinced that people will flock to it over other investment opportunities.

There has never been a more free and accessible modern-day market than crypto. 

All you have to do is get some money into a wallet, of which there are multiple options for doing so, and you can trade freely. 

You’re the master of your own financial destiny.

Stock brokers will limit the number of day trades (buying and selling in the same day) you can execute if your account is under a certain value. Kneecapping your ability to run up a bag quickly.

Crypto has no such restrictions.

You can buy and sell as you please, as often as you like. You’re not handicapped by third parties, under the illusion of “protecting” you.

Couple this with the extreme volatility of crypto, and you have the potential to make life changing money in timeframes that were unimaginable just a few decades ago.

Even in the glory days of penny stock “promoters”, like the Awesome Penny Stocks crew, getting a 10X on your money was seen as unbelievable. 

In crypto, getting a 10X is seen as a great play, but it’s far from being viewed as exceptional. 

We see 10X return opportunities daily. 

Start discussing 100-1000X plays if you really want to get my dick hard.

Now ask yourself, where do you think the masses will flock to in their attempt to beat inflation?

Do you think they’ll go to the stock market, with the dream of getting 1-3X returns on their money if they’re lucky?

Or, do you think they’ll gravitate towards crypto, where they see stories about people turning a few thousand dollars into millions, sometimes on a single play like DOGE, SHIB, or WIF?

Answer that question, and make your bets accordingly.

Times are tough for the masses right now.

Inflation is eating away at the lifestyle that everyone who followed the American dream template was promised. 

Six figure jobs no longer put you comfortably in the upper middle class in most American cities.

That $100K per year job is going to have you comfortable, but not thriving like it did for our parents’ generation.

You can’t even afford a house on that salary in today’s environment, without being house poor.

That is going to leave people with a choice.

Accept this new normal of strict budgeting, renting forever, and foregoing many luxuries such as boats, second cars, and regular vacations… or, try to grow their finances through investing and gambling.

Everything I’ve ever learned about human nature tells me that the majority are not going to simply tread water, hoping the waves of inflation don’t overtake them, dragging them under. 

Many are going to reach for greater financial heights by attempting to gamble their way back above water, reclaiming the lifestyle the system promised them.

In their quest to do so, they will congregate in the greatest casino ever created… crypto.

Until next time, 

Fractal

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