Crypto,  Market Thoughts

The Top Just Got Sloppier

(I started writing this post a few weeks ago, and then got extremely busy. This post is outdated, but I wanted to post it anyway so I can look back later and reflect on my thoughts at the time.)

In my last post, I discussed how I thought $GME pumping was a top signal for the Solana ecosystem. Looking back on what transpired after, and reflecting on it, I have some thoughts.

Currently, everything is going vertical market wide as Bitcoin is rapidly approaching it’s all time high. 

If you just look at that fact in a vaccuum, then it seems I have egg all over my face… however, that’s not the full story. 

Looking back at the charts, everything DID cool off and crash after $GME peaked. It wasn’t a wasteland, but only a few tokens moved at a time.

The environment was no longer in the “send everything up only” state that it had been in just weeks prior. 

And on top of that, $GME and the other coins that were pumping with it slid off relentlessly and haven’t come back.

If you did sell when I posted that writeup, you could have rebought your coins at a steep discount.

What surprised me was the short refractory period for the Solana ecosystem. 

I expected it to be measured in months, and instead, it was mere weeks before everything started going parabolic again.

While I did manage sell the peak euphoria and buy coins again at reduced prices by listening to my gut, I wasn’t positioned as well as I could have been had I just zoomed out and looked at the larger forces at play.

I had become so accustomed to the rotation of all the money flowing into one ecosystem, pumping all those coins, and then moving to another ecosystem as the coins from the previous bled off back to the depths from which they’d pumped.

This pattern is what led me to assume the money was going to all just move to Base chain, or some other ecosystem, after the Solana run had concluded.

What I failed to take into consideration was the amount of money the Bitcoin ETF would flood into the market, and how quickly that would push Bitcoin skyward. 

In hindsight, it’s unbelievably obvious.

The institutions have been frothing at the loins to get a crack at Bitcoin exposure, so it should’ve been obvious what would happen post approval. 

  • Ungodly amounts of money flow into the ETF
  • This pushes the price up
  • The rapid increase in price sparks attention from the tourists
  • Those tourists return to the land of crypto to strike it rich
  • They pour their money into alto coins in an attempt to catch the “Next Bitcoin” or “Next SHIB”

And that’s exactly what happened. 

I always thought the ETF would be a line of separation between two separate realities when it comes to crypto (pre/post etf) but I never expected the ripple effects to become tidal waves this quickly.

I thought I would have more time to accumulate Bitcoin for cold storage before the ascension, but it seems we were destined to go turbo mode with haste.

Even though the downturn for the Solana eco was short lived, my gut feeling was absolutely correct, and I was right to follow it.

From here my plan is to sit on my hands and let my winners run, while peeling profits little by little as things go higher.

With the way coins like $MOG are pumping, and we haven’t even hit the halving yet, I think things are about to get absolutely bonkers. 

Most of the non-native crypto people I talk to in real life who “have crypto” still routinely tell me they just hold BTC and ETH.

They haven’t even made it to our alt coins yet.

With things like the Coinbase Defi wallet and Phantom making on chain trading extremely simple and user friendly, the normie crowd is going to get onboarded on a whole new level this cycle.

This influx will bring with it a massive injection of fresh capital the crypto markets.

On top of that, and this point may be more controversial, I think over the next couple years we truly start seeing the strength of the dollar decline.

The more money the Fed prints, the more rapidly the buying power of the average persons paycheck will diminish.

As that buying power declines, they’ll look for a safe haven… and when they do, I would bet my net worth (I am) that Bitcoin and crypto as a whole become one of, if not THE top beneficiary of that flight from fiat.

I started writing this post a few weeks back, and since then the Solana eco coins have been ripping with a vengeance.

I’m up insane amounts on coins like $Retardio, $BODEN, and $MOG over on Ethereum.

I’m kind of cutting this entry short because it feels a little outdated with how fast things have moved, but I still wanted to get my thoughts down so I could reference them later.

That said, I’m going to cut things off here.

Good luck with your trading.

Until next time,

Fractal

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