Crypto,  Trading Lessons

There is No Confirmation in Trading

You might have just read the title of this post and thought, “What?! Of course there’s confirmation in trading!”

Stop middle curving and let me explain.

I’m not talking about confirmation in the form of a chart pattern playing out.

What I’m talking about is the confirmation most people look for when making trading decisions.

You see, most people want to outsource the emotional weight of their trading choices. 

They want some bigger account to tell them, 

            “This is a good entry”

            “The bottom is in! Go long!”

            “This market is running out of steam! Start taking profits!”

Trading is one of the most emotionally taxing paths a person can take.

You can go from having softball sized knots in your stomach and not being able to sleep, to daydreaming about the mansion you’re going to buy, then back to wondering how food stamps work… all in a 24-hour period.

In those moments of pain, it can ease your worries to look to a well-known account and have them tell you, “It’s going to be alright”. 

You think to yourself, “They have 50K followers! They say this coin will go higher, so I have nothing to worry about!”

The truth is, friend… your chances are 50-50, just like they were before you read their tweets.

You didn’t stack the odds in your favor. 

You simply placated the doubt in your mind by outsourcing your thinking to someone who doesn’t know you, and doesn’t give a shit about you.

If you lose your entire stack following their advice, it’s nothing to them. They made their bag already.

And you were likely the exit liquidity.

The greatest thing about trading is that you’re entirely in control of your own destiny. 

There is no team dynamic. 

You will never have to worry about putting on an all-star performance, yet still losing because someone else on the team couldn’t pull their weight.

All the highs, as well as all the lows, are entirely dependent on the actions YOU choose to make.

Some may find this notion terrifying… but you should find it liberating.

This means you have the capacity to stand on your own two feet and change the course of your own life.

When I used to look to others for confirmation, all I found was heartache.

I would buy too late, based on some account shilling a play, and end up buying the top.

Then I would hold on too long, soaking up that same accounts hopium posts like a spong, letting it fuel my bag holding strength.

Eventually, once the influencer stopped talking about it, the pain of the drawdown would become too much to bear and I’d sell for a big loss. 

Weeks later I’d see that it had pumped again, soaring beyond my entry in the process. 

If you’ve found this post, I’m willing to bet that story sounds familiar. 

Want some good news?… It doesn’t have to be this way.

These days I trade profitably, as well as consistently.

How did I do it? 

I stopped looking for confirmation outside of myself.

When I take a trade now, I understand,

  • Why I’m taking the trade
  • What my price targets are 
  • How much I’m willing to lose if it goes wrong
  • What my strategy is for taking profits

You can’t outsource this to another person, because it’s highly individualized.

Some guy trading with a seven-figure portfolio is going to approach things much differently than someone with a $1000 account and a dream of making it.

YOU have to find out what YOUR strengths and weaknesses are, and learn how to trade with those in mind.

If you know you don’t have the stomach for holding through 90% draw downs on meme coins, then you better have a strategy for cutting losses quickly.

If you do have the ability to hold through those crashes that every 1000X coin will have during it’s journey higher, then you better figure out a way of determining which coins actually have the sauce to pull that off. 

Otherwise, you’ll just become another eternal round tripper.

There is no checklist I can give you to determine that. It’s something you have to gain a feel for.

There is an endless graveyard of wannabe traders who thought that their path to prosperity was simply following the calls of big accounts on twitter.

For all the reasons we discussed earlier, they inevitably end up losing all of their money and become one of the parrots repeating, 

            “Trading is a scam! Only the insiders make any money!”

The problem with their thesis is that they were never a trader… they were a follower.

Being a trader means you can formulate a plan of action and carry it out independently.

Being a trader is NOT waiting for the popular influencer of the day telling you when to buy and sell.

Anyone doing that deserves to lose their money.

The only way to get any good at this game is to gather a little knowledge, put it into practice, and put your hard-earned money on the line.

Everything else is just mental masturbation.

Once you embrace this truth, then you can actually start becoming profitable.

Anyone can succeed at this trading game if they take it seriously, do the work, and most importantly, stop looking for confirmation outside of themselves.

Until next time, 

Fractal

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